http://hdl.handle.net/123456789/108 Mon, 10 Aug 2026 02:18:02 GMT 2026-08-10T02:18:02Z http://localhost:8080/xmlui/bitstream/id/60/ http://hdl.handle.net/123456789/108 http://hdl.handle.net/123456789/20579 Macroeconomic Impact of Tariff Policies in Pakistan: An Empirical Assessment Ahead of the New Tariff Policy 2025-29 Vol. 31 Issue 01, 2026 Noorulain Hanif; Ahsan Abbas This study examines the dual role of Pakistan’s tariff policy in raising fiscal revenue and shaping export competitiveness over the period 1981–2024. Using a Two-Stage Least Squares (2SLS) time-series framework, it estimates how tariff changes affect imports, exports, and government revenue. The results show that a one percent increase in tariff rates on production-related imports reduces their inflow by about 0.28 percent, while a one percent increase in production-related imports raises exports by about 1.26 percent. Together, these findings indicate that tariff rationalization supports export growth indirectly, by improving firms’ access to the imported inputs used in domestic production. While tariff reductions encourage the import of essential inputs and strengthen export performance, higher tariffs generate only short-term revenue gains. The findings point to a clear trade-off: tariff elasticity of revenue is positive in the short run, whereas export elasticity is negative and statistically significant. These results are highly relevant as the Tariff Policy 2019–24 has concluded and a new framework for 2025–30 has just started. The study recommends gradual tariff rationalisation, a reduction in para-tariffs, and targeted protection for strategic industries to balance revenue considerations with long-term export competitiveness. PP. 32 ill; Thu, 01 Jan 2026 00:00:00 GMT http://hdl.handle.net/123456789/20579 2026-01-01T00:00:00Z http://hdl.handle.net/123456789/20578 Bias in Survey Based Inflation Expectation: A Developing Country Perspective Vol. 31 Issue 01, 2026 Ali Inayat; Saima Naeem We studied the impact of phrasing on consumer inflation expectations in Pakistan using an online survey. Our results imply that optimal phrasing of the question can significantly reduce bias in responses. When the question is asked as an absolute change from PKR 100, responses are high and volatile, with many in multiples of tens and fifties. Moreover, we studied the impact of closed-ended questions on inflation expectations and found that responses to closed-ended questions suffer from central tendency bias. Our study also confirms the impact of information on the formation of inflation expectations. When presented with information about current inflation levels, respondents tend to lower their inflation expectations. Literature provides two possible reasons for this: information bias or social bias. PP. 21 ill; Thu, 01 Jan 2026 00:00:00 GMT http://hdl.handle.net/123456789/20578 2026-01-01T00:00:00Z http://hdl.handle.net/123456789/20577 Longitudinal Examination of Fertility Intentions and Contraceptive Behaviours Over a Period of Three Years: A Performance Monitoring for Action (PMA) Approach Vol. 31 Issue 01, 2026 Sidra Ishfaq; Aysha Sheraz; Rabia Zafar Unintended pregnancies remain an important reproductive health concern in Pakistan, particularly given high fertility rates and low contraceptive use. This study examines how past fertility intentions and contraceptive use influence subsequent pregnancy experiences. Data from 1,874 women in union aged 15–49 from the Longitudinal Panel Study: Performance Monitoring for Action (PMA) Framework (2020–2022) were analyzed. Fertility intentions were measured by women’s desire to delay or limit pregnancies, and contraceptive use was recorded as use of any method. Results indicate that women who previously expressed a desire to delay pregnancy still experienced subsequent pregnancies, and those using contraception were less likely to report unintended pregnancies. Specifically, 47% of women in round 2 and 81% in round 3 who wished to delay pregnancies reported a subsequent pregnancy, while 40% and 43% of contraceptive users in the baseline and midterm periods, respectively, experienced fewer unintended pregnancies. These findings highlight the need to strengthen women-focused family planning programs, improve access to effective contraceptive methods, and provide counseling tailored to women’s reproductive goals. PP. 23 ill; Thu, 01 Jan 2026 00:00:00 GMT http://hdl.handle.net/123456789/20577 2026-01-01T00:00:00Z http://hdl.handle.net/123456789/20576 Debt Dynamics and Economic Growth in Pakistan Vol. 31 Issue 01, 2026 Muhammad Idrees This paper estimates the impact of unanticipated public debt shocks on economic growth in Pakistan using a forecast-error identification strategy. Exploiting deviations of realized debt outcomes from contemporaneous IMF forecasts for the period 1994–2025, the analysis finds that a 1 percentage point increase in the public debt reduces real GDP by about 0.21 percent in the subsequent year. Extending the analysis to allow for nonlinearities, a debt threshold of 57 percent of GDP is identified, beyond which debt exerts a drag on growth. The findings highlight the macroeconomic costs of fiscal surprises and persistently high debt-to-GDP ratios, underscoring the need for a credible medium-term fiscal reform strategy. PP. 17 ill; Thu, 01 Jan 2026 00:00:00 GMT http://hdl.handle.net/123456789/20576 2026-01-01T00:00:00Z