Abstract:
As Pakistan enters the CPEC era, there is a sense of optimism as well as
concern in the country, given the uncertain economic impact of this major
collaboration between China and Pakistan. Using firm-level and trade data, we
empirically test the impact of the 2006 free trade agreement (FTA) between the two
countries on the productivity, size and value added of potentially affected Pakistani
firms. These results have important policy implications for CPEC initiatives. We
start with a difference-in-difference analysis, comparing trends in those sectors in
Pakistan made more vulnerable by tariff reductions on Chinese goods relative to
sectors for which the tariff did not change significantly. Next, we examine those
sectors in Pakistan that were given greater access to Chinese markets through
reductions in the Chinese tariff on Pakistani goods relative to sectors for which
market access remained roughly the same. In the sectors made more vulnerable by
reductions in Pakistani tariffs on Chinese goods, imports to Pakistan have risen,
while productivity, value added and value added per worker have fallen relative to
other sectors since the FTA. In the sectors for which Pakistan gained access to
Chinese markets, exports and employment have risen, but productivity and value
added have fallen relative to other sectors since the FTA.
