Impact of climate change on the geographic distribution of White-Backed Vulture, Gyps bengalensis – An ecological niche model analysis

Abstract

The decline in the population of Asian Gyps vultures are one of the most rapid and widespread recorded among any species. International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) has declared the Oriental White-backed Vulture (Gyps bengalensis) as critically endangered. Distribution of white-backed vulture has declined considerably in Pakistan and India. The aim of this study is to predict the current potential distribution and future distribution of Gyps bengalensis using Ecological niche models (ENM) and identify suitable conservation ranges. The area of interest was Asia (34.0479°N, 100.6197°E). Five general circulation models GCMs, GISS-E2-R, MIROCMIROC 5, MOHC_HADGEM 2.CC, MPI-ESM-LR and NCAR-CCSM 4, of spatial resolution 2.5 and best- and worst-case future climate scenarios represented by RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 were selected as predictor variables to find the future projections of the potential geographic distribution of the species. The jackknife analysis showed that bio 13 (precipitation of wettest month) and bio 6 (minimum temperature of coldest month) are the most important predictive variable for the distribution of white-backed vulture. The partial ROC and AUC showed that the model performed well for the current and future distribution of Gyps bengalensis. According to the predicted results of future (2050) the climatic conditions will not have any impact on the distribution of white-backed vulture. The area suitable in future is in accordance with current suitable ranges for conservation. Gyps bengalensis is a resilient specie that can withstand harsh climatic conditions. The major cause for decline of white-backed vulture in the Asia region is due to anthropogenic causes such as use of toxic chemical, reduced nesting habitat, nest predators, hunting and mainly because of a veterinary drug diclofenac as suggested by literature. These result will help policy makers select suitable ranges for conservation and make necessary decisions to control factors contributing to the decline of white-backed vulture.