Abstract:
This paper analyzes the impact of major factors on the export of mangoes
from Pakistan. We use a cointegration approach and error correction mechanism
applied to data for the period 1970–2005. Mango exports are regressed against the
index of relative prices of mango exports (2000 = 100), the quantity of domestic
mango production, real agricultural gross domestic product (GDP), the length of
all-weather roads, and international standardization, i.e., the impact of the World
Trade Organization agreement. The results of the augmented Dickey-Fuller test
reveal that all the data series are I(1). Applying Johansen’s test shows that the
highest elasticity coefficients are found for mango production in the short and long
run, followed by real agricultural GDP. The Granger causality test points to the
bi-directional causality of mango exports with the relative price index and allweather
roads, and unidirectional causality with real agricultural GDP and mango
production. The study recommends promoting proper orchard management,
developing the appropriate infrastructure, and stabilizing export prices to increase
mango exports from Pakistan.
